Bitcoin (BTC)’s breakout from this point forward is inevitable. The price has been consolidating in a bullish pennant since last month. No investor or analyst who draws bullish pennants like these on a chart presents a bearish case. In that case, they have to rely on a triangle that extends a little further. However, that triangle has an equal chance of breaking to the upside. The bullish pennants visible on the above chart only break to the upside, in normal market conditions. History is a wonderful teacher in technical analysis. This is why the more data we have, the more accurately we can assess probabilities. Anyone can highlight possibilities. There are a thousand of them on every chart. The purpose of technical analysis is to explore probabilities not possibilities.
As we can see on the above daily chart for BTC/USD, this is not the first time Bitcoin (BTC) has formed a bullish pennant. Bitcoin (BTC) formed an even larger bullish pennant between June and July. The price traded inside the pennant and broke out to the upside in mid July as expected. The same thing is happening again, but most amateur investors think maybe this time it will be different. On that, Sir John Templeton says, “The four most dangerous words in investing are: this time it’s different”. Throughout the history of financial markets, we have seen the same things happen over and over again. Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates has written books about it. Just as the same things happen over and over again, we make the same mistakes over and over again.
In the case of Bitcoin (BTC), most of us believe that it is here to stay. So, what then is the subject of contention? Price, bottom, and trend reversal. On this, a renowned investor, Phillip Fischer says, “The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.” When they come to find the true value of something, by then it is too late to buy or sell. The same is true with Bitcoin (BTC). Most people believe that the world is headed for a currency crisis and that eventually cryptocurrencies will take over. However, there are still a lot of people waiting for the perfect bottom. This is human psychology; it’s a practice that dates back to the inception of financial markets. These people always miss the rally and end up buying at the top.
The above monthly chart for BTC/USD clearly shows what is going on. Bitcoin (BTC) has remained above the 21 Month EMA since the beginning of this correction. The last two months in particular have shown how Bitcoin (BTC) has strongly held the 21 Month EMA support. The only reason a long term investor in Bitcoin (BTC) may not want to buy at this price would be in anticipation of another bear market. How would that be? That would be Bitcoin (BTC) breaking the 21 Month EMA and staying below it just as it did back in 2014. This means that Bitcoin (BTC) will enter another correction till 2020. If you believe that, then yes, it would be prudent to wait. Otherwise, Bitcoin (BTC)’s breakout and rise to a new ATH is inevitable.