Bitcoin tumbles after blowout August jobs print
Net assets in spot bitcoin ETFs crossed $103 billion for the first time, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for well over half the money.
Following the blowout U.S. jobs report, bitcoin fell more than 2% to around $79,000, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.5%, extending the divergence between the two assets. Their 20-day rolling correlation currently stands at -0.2.
The last time the correlation turned negative was at the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, when bitcoin began retreating from its October all-time high. Before that, it occurred in July 2024, as bitcoin consolidated between $60,000 and $70,000.
The U.S. labor market strengthened appreciably in August, giving the growing group of hawks at the Fed more ammunition to hike interest rates at the bank’s policy meeting in less than two weeks.
According to the government’s Nonfarm Payrolls report released Friday morning, the U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs last month. That was well above the consensus estimate of 56,000 and followed the addition of 21,000 jobs in July (revised from an originally reported decline of 23,000).
The unemployment rate came in at 4.1% versus 4.1% expected and July’s 4.1%.
Reaction in markets was swift, with bitcoin tumbling about 2% to below $80,000. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield jumped 3.3 basis points to 4.80% and the 2-year note added seven basis points to 4.40%. U.S. stock index futures are modestly lower.
Will they, or won’t they
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh put a September rate hike firmly on the table one week ago today with his hawkish Jackson Hole speech.
But Fed Governor Chris Waller (with an assist from FRBNY President John Williams) this week sent markets surging by suggesting a rate hike at the bank’s policy meeting in two weeks was far from a done deal.
This morning’s jobs report is another data point in favor of the hawks, but the key figure in the Fed’s decision is likely to be next Friday’s CPI report for August.
By Shaurya Malwa, Omkar Godbole, and Stephen Alpher|Edited by Stephen Alpher
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