Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to retrace after a prolonged rally since the beginning of this month. The 4H chart for BTC/USD shows that the price has entered a rising wedge. We can see that the price has already faced rejection three times at the top of the wedge and is now preparing for a fall. RSI has also entered overbought levels short term and is thus expected to correct in the near future. This should not come as alarming news for investors expecting a reversal. The big picture is still very much intact and Bitcoin (BTC) is starting to begin a new cycle. However, we believe that we may see some downside before sustained long term upside.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed atop the 21 EMA after a long time and it is very unlikely that it may fall below it anytime soon. However, there is still plenty of room for the price to fall short term. Volume is starting to rise and interest is returning back to the market. Long term investors are looking for favorable entry points, but the past few days have shown us that interest in altcoins is higher than in Bitcoin (BTC). Considering that a Bitcoin (BTC) ETF may not get approved anytime soon, it is likely that altcoins will keep on outperforming Bitcoin (BTC). Institutional investors and family offices that have been accumulating Bitcoin (BTC) have been doing so outside of exchanges. So, that is not going to affect the price of Bitcoin (BTC) on exchanges.
The major factor influencing the price of BTC/USD on exchanges is retail money. Considering that most altcoins have a lot of room to grow against Bitcoin (BTC), it is likely that the altcoin market will see more growth compared to Bitcoin (BTC) for the next few months. Most altcoins will rise against Bitcoin (BTC) but that does not mean that Bitcoin (BTC) will stay where it is. The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is unlikely to reach its all time high this year, but it may still continue to cross the $10,000 mark if not higher. That being said, 2019 is going to be the ideal month for Bitcoin (BTC) in terms of gain. Major institutional accumulation is nearly complete but Bitcoin (BTC) may still not see big spikes considering the interest is currently in the altcoin market.
As we have seen before, when the altcoin markets get topped out, that is where most people cash out in Bitcoin (BTC). As a result, we see a major rise in the price of Bitcoin (BTC) while altcoins bleed. Previously, all of these developments took place in a period of four years. However, this time that period is expected to last only two years. That means that we may see both the altcoin rally as well as the altcoin correction during 2019. Bitcoin (BTC) is not going to rise with the same pace that it did in 2015 or earlier but the next rise is still going to make this correction seem like a minor price fluctuation.