Crypto Daybook Americas: Trump’s Reserve Rumors Swirl as BTC Rebound Eyes $95K
Your day-ahead look for March 5, 2025
The crypto market has stabilized somewhat following comments from Commerce Minister Howard Lutnick, who said President Donald Trump could announce on Wednesday a pathway for tariff relief on Canadian and Mexican imports covered by NAFTA.
That has helped BTC bounce to nearly $90K, with the total crypto market cap rising to the $2.9 trillion mark. The recovery could extend further as the recent trade war fears and market volatility have reignited bets on Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts.
According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the market is now pricing in at least three rate cuts for this year, while the 10-year Treasury yield has retreated to 4.15%, down from 4.80% at the time of Trump’s inauguration. Meanwhile, Germany’s decision to abandon its fiscal constraints has led to soaring bond yields, prompting a sell-off in the dollar index that could encourage risk-taking in the market.
As a result, there is a chance that bitcoin may revisit its weekend high of $95,000, particularly as technical charts indicate signs of seller exhaustion.
However, worsening growth concerns could limit these gains. Just two days ago, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP forecast turned negative at -2.8%, raising fears of stagflation, as noted by Singapore-based QCP Capital. The firm stressed the importance of monitoring corporate yield spreads—both high-yield and investment-grade bonds—in relation to U.S. Treasury yields for signs of market stress. “While this isn’t signaling panic right now, it’s a trend worth monitoring closely,” QCP said in a Telegram broadcast.
An important consideration is how much of the decline in the 10-year yield and the weakness in the dollar can be attributed to traders adjusting their expectations about U.S. economic exceptionalism, which was largely based on Biden era’s fiscal splurge. Given the rise of ETFs and Trump’s pro-crypto stance, bitcoin has become more of a U.S. play, and a shift in the U.S. exceptionalism narrative could lead to BTC volatility.
JPMorgan, however, foresees strengthening of the U.S. exceptionalism narrative under Trump’s Presidency.
All of this means that Wednesday’s U.S. ISM non-manufacturing (services) PMI and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls could significantly influence the crypto markets.
There are also rumors that President Trump will unveil the crypto reserve strategy at the White House Crypto Summit this Friday. With Trump having made considerable promises, the markets will be watching closely to see if he delivers; otherwise, there could be further turmoil ahead. Stay alert!
BY: Omkar Godbole
DISCLOSURE & POLICES
CoinDesk is an award-winning media outlet that covers the cryptocurrency industry. Its journalists abide by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk has adopted a set of principles aimed at ensuring the integrity, editorial independence and freedom from bias of its publications. CoinDesk is part of the Bullish group, which owns and invests in digital asset businesses and digital assets. CoinDesk employees, including journalists, may receive Bullish group equity-based compensation. Bullish was incubated by technology investor Block.one.
